By:  Ashwani Sharma, Editor, South Asia Defence & Strategic Review

The sudden departure of Sheikh Hasina from power and her hurried escape to India sent shockwaves through Bangladesh’s political landscape and surprised observers worldwide. The uprising that led to her removal was unexpected, with a magnitude that caught her administration and global stakeholders, including India, off guard. What made the situation even more perplexing was the ambiguous role played by the police and army during the crisis. Their lack of decisive action, combined with reports of possible inaction or even support for the uprising, raised questions about the integrity of state institutions and whether internal forces were compromised.

The abrupt fall of a powerful leader like Hasina has fuelled speculation that foreign powers may have been involved in orchestrating these events. Some analysts have suggested the possibility of external influence or support for the uprising in an effort to destabilise Hasina’s government. Bangladesh’s strategic location in South Asia makes it a key focus for multiple global powers, and the well-organized nature of the movement against her raises the possibility of an externally coordinated plan.

Since the caretaker government assumed control, the power dynamics in Bangladesh have shifted rapidly. Islamist groups seem to be gaining influence, raising concerns about the country’s future trajectory. There have been numerous reports of violence against Hindus and other minorities, which is a disturbing trend that suggests Bangladesh may be at risk of a shift toward radicalism, even though Mr Yunus  prefers to ignore it as an expression of angst against Awami League supporters. This is concerning not only for the region but also for the secular foundation upon which the country was built.

Moreover, the rising anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh is perplexing, considering India’s long-standing support for its neighbour since the liberation struggle in 1971. India has consistently aided Bangladesh through trade, infrastructure development, and diplomacy, acting as a regional ally. However, the perception in some quarters of Bangladesh that India should accede to all its demands is problematic. This overlooks the complex realities of India’s internal challenges, including its own population and socio-political issues. A strong, stable relationship with India is crucial for the future of both countries, and it is important for Bangladeshis to recognize that India has always prioritized regional stability and prosperity but cannot be expected to address every grievance at the expense of its own national interests.

The sudden ouster of Sheikh Hasina continues to puzzle political observers and intelligence analysts. While Hasina’s leadership brought economic and infrastructural progress, her authoritarian tendencies and pro-India stance fostered dissent within the civil society. The role of the army and police, which were under the control of her trusted appointees, is particularly perplexing. How and why did they fail to alert her to the growing discontent? Likewise, while foreign influence—whether from the U.S., Pakistan, or China—is being speculated, questions arise about why her own intelligence apparatus failed to provide timely warnings or take corrective action. India’s intelligence and diplomatic network also seems to have been caught off guard, despite the strong diplomatic and military ties between the two nations that had been carefully cultivated over the years. The inability of any state institution to respond promptly and effectively calls for serious introspection.

One must acknowledge Sheikh Hasina’s commitment to pulling Bangladesh out of poverty and placing it firmly on the path to economic and social development. One can only hope that the rise of radical Islamists is a temporary response to disenchantment with the previous regime. It will be crucial to observe how the Bangladeshi public reacts to the economic instability that may follow this political upheaval. Religious fundamentalism and economic prosperity are unlikely to coexist, and it is up to the people of Bangladesh to make a choice for their future.

As General Ata Hasnain has rightly pointed out in his piece, patience and diplomatic restraint are the best strategies for India as Bangladesh’s immediate neighbour. Despite promises of support from global powers, Bangladesh’s fortunes remain closely intertwined with India’s. As the saying goes, one cannot choose their neighbours—India remains a benign and supportive one.

The current instability in Bangladesh, marked by the rise of Islamist factions and the vulnerability of its minorities, represents a critical moment for the country. Bangladesh must carefully consider its cultural roots and the progress it has made over the past decades. As the nation navigates this transition, it is vital for the caretaker government and the people to reflect on the country’s founding principles and avoid a descent into radicalism, which could threaten not only regional peace but also Bangladesh’s own stability and development. The international community, including India, will be watching closely, ready to support a peaceful and inclusive path forward.